A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
